The 2022-23 NBA Season has been plagued by overarching storylines.
Will Nikola Jokic turn out to be simply the fourth participant in NBA historical past to win three straight MVPs?
Who will win the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes?
Chief amongst all these narratives has been the query of whether or not or not the sport’s best participant ever (possibly?) will break essentially the most sacred report within the sport.
With solely 283 factors sitting between LeBron James and Kareem Abdul-Jabaar, and 37 Los Angeles Laker video games left on the season, the query is now not a matter of will he do it, however relatively, when and the place will he break the scoring report.
To attempt to determine this out, we’re going to wish to do some ~ math.
On the season, The King is averaging 29.8 PPG. If he continues that common, he’ll surpass Abdul-Jabaar in roughly 9.5 video games. So, it will be in the course of the Lakers’ Feb. 7 conflict with the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder.
Chances are high, although, with the way in which James has been taking part in of late, it might even come before that. In the course of the month of January (7 video games), James has been averaging 34.9 factors per contest. If he continues to attain at that fee, he’ll turn out to be the all-time main scorer 8.1 video games from now, which might imply he would break the report early in his crew’s street matchup towards the New Orleans Pelicans on Feb. 4.
(Sidebar: hopefully, Zion Williamson is wholesome for that sport as a result of it will make for a extremely cool story to see one generational expertise break the all-time scoring report in entrance of one other one.)
However wait, our projections are failing to account for one necessary variable — well being. To this point, James has solely participated in 35 of the crew’s 45 video games (77.8%), that means he’s lacking roughly two out of each 10 video games.
If that harm pattern continues whereas he’s scoring on the 29.8 PPG tempo, he’ll break the report on the street towards the Golden State Warriors on Feb. 23. If he’s on the 34.9 PPG scoring clip, he would be the proprietor of the best report in basketball by the tip of the Lakers’ house sport towards the Milwaukee Bucks on Feb. 9.
In the event you ask me, that’s in all probability the best-case situation. James might be at house, taking part in towards the participant many view as the present greatest participant on the planet, Giannis Antetounkmpo, taking part in for the crew Abdul-Jabbar set the scoring report with, towards the crew he scored 14,211 of his 38,387 profession factors for.
No matter what the storyline is, James is coming for Abdul-Jabaar’s throne. And primarily based on our projections, it appears like it will likely be all his comparatively quickly.